Secure futures

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As different regions acquire greater economic power and international clout, no one region's security interests can be allowed to dominate the international security environment. In a multi-polar world, there is a danger that each region could pursue their own security interests without considering the international system as a whole, leading to the hardening of regional security alliances and inter-regional security dilemmas. Yet a multi-polar world order need not necessarily lead to greater conflict and instability. If key global players are able to evolve adequate strategies for dialogue and cooperation, then multi-polarity might assist in the establishment of a more effective and mutually acceptable international security framework.

Movement towards this objective is especially critical in the field of nuclear nonproliferation, as the continued existence of nuclear weapons has the potential to cause untold damage. By introducing an element of uncertainty into the international security environment, multi-polarity might re-ignite a new nuclear arms race. It is therefore disconcerting that little has been done to adapt the existing arms control framework, with its outmoded focus on the Untied States and Russia, to the requirements of the world today.

A crucial security challenge of our times is international terrorism. Yet measures to fight terrorism have often got trapped in vicious cycles. Along with combating terrorism, in some cases they have inadvertently led to wider support for terrorist causes. A striking feature of terrorism and other recent security threats has been the role of transnational actors. Unstable states often serve as fertile breeding ground for these transnational crime networks, yet there seems to be no coherent and effective strategy to guard against possible dangers and enable these states to stabilise. Conventional national defence strategies no longer seem to be adequate in guarding against current security threats, and multilateral international institutions have also not been very effective.

The questions for debate that Foresight will analyse include:

  • What are the ways in which nonproliferation and disarmament can be promoted?
  • How can it be ensured that existing nuclear arsenal does not fall into the hands of non-state actors?
  • How do different countries view forms of regional security cooperation?
  • Are conventional defence facilities and capabilities equipped to cope with new security challenges? If not, how can they be improved, and what are the methods being adopted by different players?
  • Is it possible to guard against the dangers of trans-national terrorism without impinging on civic liberties? What strategies have different states adopted?
  • How can international security cooperation be made more effective?