Economic futures

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The last decade has witnessed breathtaking growth in many parts of Asia as well as a shift in global economic power to producers of natural resources in other parts of the world. These developments are causing anxiety in some of the more advanced economies, where vulnerable sectors of the population risk losing out. Globalisation may have allowed more people to share in the prosperity created by economic integration, but it has also created fierce competition between and within countries for markets and resources. The impact of multi-polarity on these processes is far from clear. The emergence of multiple centres of economic power represents a more complex stage of global economic integration. Yet by helping to spread risks, multi-polarity also has the potential to increase economic well-being and stability.

Building a more effective and inclusive system of global economic governance is therefore a key concern of the Foresight project. In some cases it may require adapting existing norms and institutions in order to make them more acceptable to all the key players; in other cases, as in the field of energy, it may require establishing completely new ones. These new norms will need to balance the interests of emerging powers while addressing the anxieties within advanced economies over rising inequalities.

Last but not least, a revamped multilateral economic system needs to address climate change and the questions of international equity surrounding this issue. As poorer countries develop, and their populations have larger disposable incomes, their consumption patterns will naturally start to match those of the rich world. Faced with limited resources and the prospect of global warming, the planet's ability to sustain such patterns seems uncertain. On the other hand, the current economic system depends on a culture of consumption, and effective alternative models have not yet emerged.

The questions for debate that Foresight will analyse include:

  • What are the implications of the shift in global economic power for prosperity and economic stability?
  • What are the risks of the current global financial system and what reforms might reduce them?
  • How do different players view the international trade regime, including issues such as intellectual property rights, and in what ways can it be made more acceptable to all players?
  • How are different global players coping with the challenges of social justice?
  • Is it possible to reconcile economic growth with measures to guard against climate change? What are the strategies that different players are adopting, and what are the possibilities for international cooperation?
  • What strategies are being prepared by different players for handling increasing resource scarcity?