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Rebuilding alliances

By W. Alejandro Sanchez

Although the financial crisis is testing Russia's foreign policy priorities, there is still great potential for renewed alliances with Latin America.

President Medvedev's visit to Latin America last November was accompanied by great fanfare and hype. Claims that "Russia has returned to Latin America" led to consternation in the US and Europe and there has been much speculation about Russia's motives in seeking a stronger relationship with Latin America.

Today, however, the picture may look drastically different than just a few months ago. The Russian economy has been severely weakened by the global financial crisis as the price of oil has drastically fallen. Meanwhile, there is a new incumbent in the White House who, hopefully, will assign much greater importance to Latin America than his predecessor and whose administration advocates a ‘reset' of relations with Russia.

These recent developments have great significance, but it is also important to keep in mind the historical context of both regions while analysing the prospects for Russia-Latin America relations. Latin America, from the Monroe doctrine onwards, has often been regarded by the US as its own backyard, and has tried to assert itself against US dominance. The last decade witnessed the rise of anti-American governments in the region, such as Venezuela. Other countries, such as Brazil have also pursued more assertive policies and looked outside the Western Hemisphere for new allies (i.e. Europe, China, South Africa and India). Thus, Russia is a contender to be Latin America's trustworthy ally against American hegemony. And, in the case of countries like Cuba and Nicaragua, re-approaching Moscow means revisiting historical friendships.

Russia, meanwhile, is seeking to re-establish itself as a global superpower. Its sense of post-Cold War humiliation has been exacerbated by US and European attempts to engage with post-Soviet states. Prospects of NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia, as well as the establishment of US missile bases in Eastern Europe have caused outrage in Russia. The war in Georgia marked the lowest point in relations between Russia and the ‘West'. In seeking to build greater ties with Latin America, Russia is trying to demonstrate that it can also pursue its own policies in a region long regarded as Washington's sphere of influence. At the time of Medvedev's visit, through joint naval exercises with Venezuela and promises to assist in nuclear technology, the Russian government was trying to convey the message that it can also play the same game.

However, besides Russia, only Nicaragua, led by Cold War-era friend Daniel Ortega, has recognised Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And, the global financial crisis is testing Russia's foreign policy priorities. Moscow's draining coffers have forced the government to halt ambitious military reorganisation initiatives. S7 Group, Russia's second-largest carrier, has canceled its order for 15 of Boeing Co.'s 787 Dreamliners. Recently, there were anti-government protests in Vladivostok, triggered by frustration about the economic situation. This indicates that Moscow's domestic politics and overall national situation, combined with regional events, will make it more difficult for Russia to pursue its ties with Latin America.

Recent developments, such as the gas war with Ukraine and renewed ties with Kazakhstan, indicate that Moscow will concentrate on its "near abroad" (Eastern Europe, the Black Sea, the Caucasus and Central Asia) as the key geopolitical priority. News about Moscow deciding against deploying an Iskander missile system to the oblast of Kaliningrad signal that the U.S.-missile shield in Europe remains a major concern for the Kremlin. And, of course, its relationship with the new US administration will be key.

Nevertheless, Russia has not forgotten about Latin America. In late January, Cuban President Raul Castro visited Moscow, the first by a Cuban head of state in almost twenty-five years. Numerous agreements were signed with the aim of bringing new strength to Russian-Cuban relations. Russian officials promised the delivery of 25,000 tons of grain and a $20 million loan for the development of Cuba's construction, energy and agriculture sectors. However, unlike during the Cold War, there is no major ideology guiding Russian foreign policy. It is only an aspiration for great power status.

In the absence of ideological and cultural links, trade will need to play a decisive role in building ties between Russia and Latin America. With Russia giving credit loans to Cuba, selling weaponry to Venezuela, and upgrading military hardware in Peru, trade has increased significantly. Yet, it is not even half of Latin America's trade with the US, Europe or China. While it is unrealistic to believe that either Russia or any other state will soon topple the U.S.' historical influence in the region, it is accurate to state that the Americas is an area being actively courted by different powers, with Moscow regaining a prominent role in western hemispheric affairs.

W. Alejandro "Alex" Sanchez is a research fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs and an international security analyst at the Center for International Policy