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Latin steps

By Alejandro Jara Weitzmann

If ratified, a new South American treaty which challenges traditional Washington influence will represent a distinctive step in the region's political integration

The recently signed Constitutive Treaty of the Union of South American Nations (Unasur) is likely to mark the emergence of a new phase of regional cooperation in Latin America. Unlike its predecessors Mercosur and the Andean Community of Nations (CAN), which focused on economic integration, Unasur is centred on stressing the common identity of the region and addressing security concerns, namely energy and defence, rather than trade alone.

Although the treaty has yet to be ratified, its signature on 23 May 2008 was itself a major development, gathering together for the first time the 12 South American countries, including such powerful global actors as Brazil and Argentina as well as Chile, an influential country in the multilateral arena, and Venezuela, a global energy supplier.

However, it is the proposed scope of the treaty which promises to take the previous political and economic processes of regional integration in Latin America to a new level. The Unasur agenda includes innovative proposals in the sphere of defence, not least the possibility of forming a South American Defence Council, put forward by President Lula da Silva from Brazil. This regional council would be led by Brazil with the purpose of representing the subcontinent at the UN Security Council. The core aim of this proposal, as expressed by the Unasur working group meeting held in Santiago last July, is to "preserve South America as a peaceful zone, a basis for democratic stability and economic and social development".

The increasing importance of energy cooperation among South American countries partly accounts for the establishment of this regional bloc. According to IMF figures, Unasur's share in global GDP is 4.8%, whereas its shares in global oil reserves and current global oil production both reach 9%. Much of the bulk of these shares and reserves belong to Brazil, Venezuela and Ecuador. The figures represent a significant share by any global standards, comparable to those of the Middle Eastern countries considered individually (Saudi Arabia, Iran or Iraq) exceeding that of Russia (6.6%), and even more than that of the US (2.5%). Unasur member states also account for 4% of global gas reserves and an even higher percentage of global gas production. The region has substantial hydro power potential and water resources, is a major commodities supplier and the world's biggest food producer. It should not therefore be overlooked as a serious global energy player and it is strategically important for several of the most crucial issues on the global security agenda.

Will the creation of Unasur in the medium and longer term result in new geopolitical alignments, away from Latin America's traditional dependence on the United States? Will it confer greater influence and autonomy to Latin American countries, including as regards the development of their security policies, in an emerging multipolar order? Will it overcome the obstacles which currently stand in its way?

The aim of the Unasur initiative is no doubt to grant its member states renewed regional leverage in international affairs. If it succeeds in this regard, we can expect a number of hemispheric and traditional north-south alignments to change. The US-Latin American relationship might need to be revised and/or revitalised in a new way, in a wider and more competitive context. There will also be more opportunities to develop new ties and agreements with the European Union. And the region is currently experiencing a new diplomatic initiative from the Russian Federation in several domains. All of this considered, the new Latin American integration process aspires to contribute to a more cohesive global dialogue and to the emergence of a more balanced scenario and interplay between emerging and non-emerging actors in the multi-polar world.

However a number of obstacles will have to be overcome if Unasur's potential and aims are to be fulfilled. In the very short term Unasur has been put to the test and has shown its readiness for action during the recent and still unfolding Bolivian crisis (an upsurge of violence against the president's proposed referendum on a new constitution). It has done so by calling a leader's summit in Chile and by subscribing to a Common Declaration and Action Plan to support democracy in Bolivia. It also worked to set the procedures for an International Commission to visit the troubled Andean country and to restore national dialogue. Although the Bolivian internal unrest has not ceased completely, there is little doubt among serious observers that the Unasur summit helped significantly to reduce the level of conflict and to open the door for a political and democratic solution to the upheaval. So far Unasur's efforts have shown positive results.

Yet there are further challenges of a political, cultural and economic nature. On a political level, this relates to the capacity of the modern centre-left coalitions and governments, such as in Brazil or Chile, to deepen the dialogue with the so called 21st century socialists centred around Venezuela. In this regard, Unasur clearly represents a vital common framework to maintain governance and political cohesion within the subregion. This is the Bolivian lesson.

Let us not forget that the Organisation of American States (OAS), an institution that includes the United States as a permanent member, played a significant role in helping to work out a solution during this year's Colombia-Ecuadorian crisis (when Colombian troops carried out a cross-border raid into Ecuador to pursue members of Farc). The establishment of Unasur as another regional organisation, but one that excludes the United States as a permanent member has implications for future security and border issues and challenges the traditional role of Washington in hemispheric affairs.

In the long run Unasur's success will rely on the capacity of each country to capitalise commodities and/or energy economic surpluses into a sustainable growth strategy able to overcome social inequalities.

These will not be easy tasks for the region. But the new initiative certainly brings a distinctive voice to South America with an overtone echoing its own identity and its quest for a new phase of globalisation that is able to deal with both security and social challenges on a large scale, reflecting an awareness of the increasingly important link between the two.

Alejandro Jara Weitzmann is the analysis and planning director at the Chilean Copper Corporation and a fellow at the Instituto Igualdad