Idea

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The last decade has witnessed the emergence of an age of global interdependence. The dramatic increase in the quantity of international flows of capital, products, ideas and people has led to an unprecedented strengthening of global interconnectedness. As a result, domestic and international politics have also become increasingly intertwined. The impact of decisions taken in one part of the world is no longer isolated to that region, but affects the global community as a whole. From climate change to terrorism to international financial crises, it is apparent that no single state, however rich or powerful, can address the new global challenges on its own.

The last decade has also seen a major shift in the distribution of power, especially economic power, away from the OECD towards other regions of the world. In particular, the undisputed hegemony of the United States, which followed the bi-polar rivalry of the cold war, has come under question. The United States remains an economic giant with huge military might, but the world is now increasingly multi-polar. In addition to the successfully enlarged EU, we are witnessing breathtaking growth in China and India, the resurgence of Russia, a new dynamism in Latin America, increasing stability and vitality in parts of Africa, and the rising economic power of west Asian producers of energy and natural resources.

While global interdependence increases the necessity for international cooperation, the emergence of multi-polarity is complicating inter-state relations by raising questions about the legitimacy of existing international norms and institutions designed to regulate state behaviour. Products of the post second world war era, when the United States and Soviet Union were the undisputed superpowers, these international norms and institutions are increasingly criticised for the hierarchies embedded within their structures.

The global challenges facing today's major players may be similar, but each country approaches these challenges from a perspective shaped by its own historical background and distinct perceptions of its own identity. The result is often sharply divergent visions of their own and the rest of the world's future.

Foresight is born out of the belief that the new multi-polar order need not usher in a period of conflict and instability. In a multi-polar world, no single power is in a position to dictate the course of the future. Forging common futures between the global players under the present conditions will therefore depend on setting two key processes in motion. The first is developing better multilateral understanding of the plurality of views, values and identities that characterise our multi-polar order. The second is encouraging an open-ended and critical dialogue on how existing international norms and institutions could be redefined in ways that accommodate this plurality. Only by making global governance structures more representative will they become more effective at dealing with global challenges. Foresight aims to facilitate and encourage both of these processes.